A possible problem (for Speaker Johnson's leadership)

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., remains House Speaker Mike Johnson. For now.

Despite tons of threats, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has not yet pulled the trigger connected her solution to unseat Johnson.

She archetypal threatened to unit the House to ballot connected her measurement successful mid-March.

"We had discussions successful the speaker's office, and close present the shot is successful Mike Johnson's court," said Greene.

When pressed erstwhile she mightiness marque her determination against the speaker, Greene replied, "It’s up to Mike Johnson."

Like astir things, it’s astir the math. So let’s research that for a moment.

Granted, determination volition apt beryllium immoderate GOPers who reason tabling. In different words, there’s an chartless beingness of Republicans who would beryllium connected the record, preferring that the House instrumentality a ballot of nary assurance connected Johnson. But the House volition apt abbreviated circuit that effort.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has threatened to telephone to a ballot a abrogation of station for House Speaker Mike Johnson, nevertheless the lawsuit has yet to pass. (Getty Images)

"We don't similar it. We'd beryllium aggravated astir it due to the fact that each it does is weaken each of us," said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. "Tactically and strategically, it's not smart."

Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., had signed connected to Greene’s gambit to vacate the speakership of Johnson. But Gosar is fishy astir the timing.

"I don’t deliberation it’s going to hap this week," said Gosar. "I anticipation it doesn’t hap this week. So I’ll permission it astatine that."

"It’s not bully for the country, the league oregon the cause," replied Johnson.

The information that Democratic leaders announced they would effort to assistance Johnson retired via a parliamentary maneuver to region him seemed to determination accelerant connected the embers of the House Republican Conference.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she supported the determination by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to bring successful the Democratic cavalry for Johnson.

"I deliberation he’s precise overmuch successful interaction with our caucus," replied Pelosi.

I past asked Pelosi what this means astir Johnson if helium indispensable thin connected the number to cling to his job.

"He doesn’t person to crook to the number for support," replied Pelosi. "The number enactment is saying we enactment the integrity of the House of Representatives and volition not fto it beryllium littered by nonsense."

A cynic mightiness constituent retired that Democrats ne'er came to the rescue of McCarthy. But Democrats contend that McCarthy went backmost connected a large spending statement and spoke derisively of the different party. Yes, determination are chasms betwixt Democrats and Johnson. But Democrats astatine slightest judge they got what they request from Johnson — a measure to money Ukraine and an honorable broker erstwhile it comes to spending deals.

However, successful a Machiavellian twist, did Democrats really stoke much chaos successful the Republican Conference by saying they would backmost Johnson? Hence, the crushed Greene is present gathering with Johnson connected a regular basis? Even if that’s not the intent, the result is hard to reason with. There’s turmoil among House Republicans now.

U.S. Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., 2nd from left, takes questions arsenic House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., left, and House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., look connected during a quality briefing astatine the U.S. Capitol Nov. 2, 2023 (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Rank-and-file Republicans are besides noticing however overmuch attraction Greene and Massie receive. They are grumbling astir the regular drama.

"You clasp a large property league past week to accidental you are going to bash it this week. And past you spell done the aforesaid process again," groused Rep. David Joyce, R-Ohio. "Are we fundraising oregon are we trying to get thing accomplished connected the floor?"

Joyce besides suggested Johnson mightiness "create a revolt if helium caters to immoderate 1 radical who threatens him."

As Shakespeare wrote, what is past is prologue. And that’s wherefore the bedlam of House Republicans present mightiness uncover thing alternatively jarring astir the aboriginal erstwhile it comes to Johnson, immoderate different imaginable Republican Speaker and the presidency.

The House has present burned 28 of the 494 days since the 118th Congress commenced connected Jan. 3, 2023, warring implicit a speaker. By rule, the House tin bash thing — perfectly thing — until determination is simply a speaker. It can’t vote. It can’t make committees. It can’t legislate. It can’t adjacent curse successful its members. The House spent 5 days earlier it yet elected McCarthy arsenic talker successful January 2023. It was the longest talker predetermination since the precocious 1850s. The House past torched 22 days successful October aft it jettisoned McCarthy earlier yet electing Johnson.

Here's the problem:

Let’s accidental for the involvement of statement Republicans support power of the House successful this fall’s elections. If Democrats triumph the House, the enactment volition elite Jeffries arsenic speaker. But if the GOP prevails, the way for Johnson backmost to the speaker’s suite — oregon anyone other — is acold from clear. If Greene ever does telephone a ballot connected Johnson, we’ll person a barometer to recognize the benignant of shortage Johnson mightiness look successful January.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks to reporters extracurricular the U.S. Capitol Building during a ballot connected authorities pertaining to TikTok March 13, 2024, successful Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

As demonstrated successful January 2023, the House is required to vote. And vote. And ballot – until it elects a speaker. No different business. Period. And to reiterate, it cannot adjacent curse successful the members.

Under the Constitution, the caller Congress, tapping a talker and swearing successful members indispensable commencement astatine noon Jan., 3, 2023.

It took 5 days to elite McCarthy, 22 days to elite Johnson.

The House had clip to spare successful January 2023. It was coming disconnected a midterm election. It surely had clip past fall.

However, clip volition not beryllium a luxury connected Jan. 3, 2025, erstwhile the 119th Congress convenes.

That’s due to the fact that the House is expected to certify the Electoral College Jan. 6.

Congress did not reason certifying the electoral votes for the 2020 predetermination until the wee hours of Jan. 7, aft the riot astatine the Capitol.

So what happens if the House is deadlocked implicit electing a talker and can’t behaviour a Joint Session of Congress to certify the Electoral College?

And that’s wherefore the existent troubles vexing Mike Johnson present could beryllium geometric successful scope travel January.