BJP 'could come below 200' seats: Sanjay Jha tells 'why INDIA bloc will win' Lok Sabha Elections 2024

It was successful 2004 erstwhile the Congress returned to powerfulness astatine the Centre portion ousting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aft its eight-year rule.

Jha's pre-poll prediction

Sanjay Jha said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) volition highest astatine astir astatine 210-215 Lok Sabha seats of the full 543 seats. He added that "the BJP could adjacent travel beneath 200".

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"[Uttar Pradesh] UP could present a knockout blow. Across India, alteration seems to beryllium the keyword. Barring an unforeseen achromatic swan moment, the momentum displacement indicates a rising enactment for INDIA alliance. We are seeing a repetition of 2004," Jha said.

Meanwhile, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuded assurance that they volition triumph the 2024 Lok Sabha Election, with “historic" 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). 

Jha's 11 reasons for INDIA's 'win'

Jha shared a "few cardinal takeaways" aft the 2nd signifier of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 to ascertain wherefore helium believes the INDIA bloc volition triumph this time.

First, helium said the "voter is fed up of lies, spin-doctoring and subpar propaganda". He said the voters "trust nary one". However, "after 10 years successful power, the trust-deficit with BJP is highest", helium claimed.

His 2nd crushed stated that "there is simply a immense fatigue origin with [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi".

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"The modular accusations of dynasty, appeasement and corruption tag is not moving astatine all, arsenic radical spot the aforesaid successful the BJP and astir apt worse. Strange arsenic it whitethorn sound, helium is some BJP’s plus and a liability," Jha added.

Other 9 reasons by Jha pointed astatine "anti-Muslim/minorities polarization of Modi", " arrogance of powerfulness led to Modi", the Prime Minister's "strategic blunder successful throttling Congress slope accounts, arresting Arvind Kejriwal, and threatening opposition" and the BJP taking "little" astir first-time voters.

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'BJP’s vote-share should dip significantly'

In different point, Jha highlighted however the "floating voter", which "determines elections everywhere", is "leaving the BJP connected relationship of feeling betrayed".

"The floating elector determines elections everywhere; but successful India that is the biggest chunk astatine astir 50-60%, dissimilar the US/UK wherever the voting patterns are much predictable. Both BJP and Congress stabilize astatine astir a halfway vote-bank of 20% each," Jha tweeted.

He added,"...That floating voter, expecting governance, development, jobs and a antiauthoritarian syncretic nine is leaving the BJP connected relationship of feeling betrayed, which explains the large dips successful voting successful BJP seats successful the archetypal 2 phases."

The erstwhile Congress person said the BJP’s vote-share "should dip significantly, though it whitethorn beryllium compensated by gains elsewhere oregon get much concentrated successful harmless seats that guarantee victory".

Read Sanjay Jha's afloat station here:

'The Momentum factor'

Jha likened authorities to sports, saying they some are influenced by momentum. "You win, you support winning. But that spell does not past forever. Once it reverses, it goes the different way," helium added.

He added that close now, the Congress and the INDIA bloc person "a perceptible tailwind, a disposable momentum".

"The BJP could soon person to follow a Stop-Loss strategy; further phases could spell much atrocious news, arsenic it usually gets progressively worse. But Modi whitethorn person already played his past paper of polarization," Jha said.

A "Stop-loss" strategy is utilized to debar much losses erstwhile the inclination goes against the commercialized determination by automatically exiting the commercialized astatine a threshold point.

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Published: 27 Apr 2024, 07:56 PM IST