British Pound (GBP), FTSE 100 Steady as the UK Goes to the Polls

GBP/USD and FTSE 100 Analysis and Charts

• GBP/USD boosted by US dollar weakness.
• FTSE 100 underpinned for now.

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Labour person Sir Keir Starmer is acceptable to beryllium handed the keys to No.10 time with his enactment forecast to triumph the wide predetermination by a important margin. The latest YouGov MRP canvass forecasts Labour winning 431 seats, the Conservative Party 102 seats, with the Liberal Democrats successful 3rd spot with 72 seats. According to YouGov determination are 89 seats wherever the 2 apical parties are wrong 5% of each other,

‘What does this mean successful practice? Our scope for the fig of Conservative seats is betwixt 78 and 129 seats, portion our scope for the Liberal Democrats is betwixt 57 and 87. That means astatine 1 extremity of the realistic possibilities is that we aftermath up connected Friday to find Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats) is Leader of the Opposition. At the different extremity of possibilities is that the Tories are successful a unafraid 2nd place. The astir apt result is the Conservatives conscionable implicit 100 seats, the Liberal Democrats connected astir 72.’

The polling stations volition adjacent contiguous astatine 22:00 UK and counting begins immediately. The BBC estimates that the archetypal seats volition beryllium declared astir 23:00 UK with the immense bulk of seats declared by 06:00 UK connected Friday.

Sterling remains rangebound going into the predetermination and volition stay that mode until the effect is known. GBP/USD is trading connected either broadside of 1.2750, boosted successful portion by a weaker US dollar. Wednesday’s US ISM study showed the system contracting for the 2nd clip successful the past 3 months, portion the Business Activity Index slumped to 49.6 from 61.2, the archetypal period of contraction since May 2020.

US markets are closed contiguous for Independence Day, portion time sees the latest US Jobs Report released astatine 13:30 UK.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

The FTSE 100 is trading marginally higher successful aboriginal turnover aft some the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P posted caller grounds highs overnight.

FTSE 100 Daily Price Chart

Charts utilizing TradingView

Retail trader information shows 44.15% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders abbreviated to agelong astatine 1.26 to 1.The fig of traders net-long is 15.38% little than yesterday and 0.96% little from past week, portion the fig of traders net-short is 12.02% higher than yesterday and 4.80% little from past week.

We typically instrumentality a contrarian presumption to assemblage sentiment, and the information traders are net-short suggests FTSE 100 prices whitethorn proceed to rise. Positioning is much net-short than yesterday but little net-short from past week. The operation of existent sentiment and caller changes gives america a further mixed FTSE 100 trading bias.

What is your presumption connected the British Pound and the FTSE 100 – bullish oregon bearish?? You tin fto america cognize via the signifier astatine the extremity of this portion oregon interaction the writer via Twitter @nickcawley1.