Does RFK Jr pose more of a threat to Trump or Biden?

Mike Panza showed up aboriginal to a drama payment to enactment the Kennedy run for president.

Wearing a Star Wars-themed garment and queuing extracurricular the Royal Oak Theatre successful this Detroit suburb, helium talked astir what drew him to the 1 campaigner successful the 2024 contention identifiable solely by his initials - RFK Jr.

"I'd similar a instrumentality to the mediate of the road," said Mr Panza, 44. "His stance connected wellness attraction is truly appealing. Kennedy wants to marque radical healthy, helium wants to marque the state healthy."

Mr Panza, who works arsenic an biology officer, mightiness dependable similar a disaffected Democrat. But erstwhile I inquire who helium voted for successful 2020, helium answers immediately: "Trump."

Interviews with dozens of Robert F Kennedy Jr supporters present constituent to a paradox astir the autarkic candidate, 1 of the biggest wildcards successful November's statesmanlike election.

Conventional wisdom, backed up by immoderate sentiment polls, says that Mr Kennedy, a subordinate of the country's astir celebrated - and Democratic - governmental family, presents much of a menace to Joe Biden than to the Republican nominee Donald Trump.

However, different caller surveys, interviews with supporters and a person look astatine the issues that animate Mr Kennedy's basal archer a antithetic communicative - that possibly Mr Trump is the campaigner who should beryllium much worried.

"Given the presumption of authorities successful Michigan close now, I would accidental he's astir apt much damaging to Trump," said Corwin Smidt, a authorities prof astatine Michigan State University. "But it's a precise uncertain situation."

Mr Kennedy is consistently polling successful the teens oregon precocious azygous digits, percentage-wise. By each indications helium is the astir fashionable autarkic oregon third-party campaigner successful decades.

Experts accidental enactment for third-party candidates tends to diminution person to the election, and that Mr Kennedy is highly improbable to triumph the White House. Yet, due to the fact that of the choky electoral map, his important enactment has the imaginable to power results successful immoderate states - including Michigan, a cardinal battleground - and yet find who becomes the adjacent president.

Just a fewer miles distant from the drama show, section Republicans successful suburban Macomb County clasp a pro-Trump rally each Sunday astatine a wide intersection surrounded by portion malls, fast-food outlets and a state station.

This is hotly contested territory. Mr Trump carried astir 53 percent of voters successful Macomb, successful some 2016 and 2020.

But successful the past election, the stock of the ballot going to third-party candidates declined, allowing Joe Biden to amended connected Hillary Clinton's portion of the ballot by astir 3.5 percent points. It was 1 tiny portion that allowed Biden to flip Michigan backmost into the Democratic file successful 2020.

At the gathering of a mates of twelve Republicans waving American flags and handmade pro-Trump signs, absorption to the Kennedy run ranged from guffawing bemusement to mild approval.

Peter Kiszczyc is simply a regular astatine these rallies. He says he's gladsome that autarkic candidates specified arsenic Mr Kennedy Jr and left-winger Cornel West person entered the race.

"Some leftists volition ballot for them," said Mr Kiszczyc, 69, who emigrated to Michigan from Poland successful the 1980s. "Some things I similar astir RFK, immoderate I don't."

But helium was successful heavy statement with 1 of Mr Kennedy Jr's astir noteworthy - and arguable - issues. "All of america enactment his presumption against vaccination," helium said, gesturing astatine the tiny assemblage of Trump fans.

After a vocation arsenic an biology lawyer, Mr Kennedy headed the anti-vaccine organisation Children's Health Defense. Its enactment and fundraising skyrocketed - arsenic did Mr Kennedy's illustration - during the Covid-19 pandemic.

His activism has enactment Mr Kennedy connected the other broadside to astir Democrats of a taste and governmental disagreement that formed during the pandemic - and which was peculiarly acute successful Michigan.

In April 2020, then-President Trump focused his ire connected Gretchen Whitmer, the state's Democratic governor, for imposing lockdown measures, tweeting: "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!" The authorities was the tract of galore protests against Ms Whitmer's Covid policies, including tense equipped rallies astatine the authorities capitol.

"A batch of the anti-Whitmer voters went for Trump successful 2020," said Mr Smidt, the Michigan State professor.

He noted that galore Michiganders drawn towards Mr Kennedy's presumption connected healthcare and vaccines thin to thin blimpish - and frankincense would much people autumn into Mr Trump's camp.

"Democrats successful Michigan are not similar Democrats successful California," helium said.

A fig of Kennedy supporters backmost astatine the theatre - who paid $99 each for a drama summons - declared that they were opposed to lockdowns, masks, and Covid vaccines.

"I deliberation the full pandemic was mismanaged," said Sara White, a 43-year-old parent who said she opposed schoolhouse closings and vaccine mandates. Ms White described herself arsenic a erstwhile Democrat - "I voted for Obama," she said - but noted that successful 2020, she formed her ballot for Mr Trump.

The evening began with a abbreviated run video made by the creator of Plandemic, a bid of conspiratorial documentaries astir Covid.

The jokes skewed towards issues connected the Make America Great Again agenda, including poking amusive astatine sex terminology, "woke" young radical and National Public Radio.

After the comedy, Mr Kennedy remarked: "There are radical extracurricular contiguous who interest that I'm going to instrumentality votes distant from President Biden and get President Trump elected.

"And determination are radical who I tally into each time who are disquieted that I'm going to instrumentality votes distant from President Trump and get President Biden elected. And some of them deliberation that's going to beryllium the extremity of our republic… I deliberation our ideology is stronger than that."

Mr Kennedy's "pox connected some your houses" connection resonates with Liz Glass, a 59-year-old self-described recovering Democrat who owns a deli successful Boyne City, successful northwest Michigan. She voted for Mr Biden successful 2020, but won't again.

"I'm disgusted," she said successful a telephone interview. "It seems similar the 2 large parties conscionable privation you to hatred the different one, much than they person thing to connection that's positive."

But Mr Kennedy looks improbable to beryllium capable to instrumentality vantage of 1 the biggest issues for disaffected Democrats, including Michigan's sizable Arab-American colonisation - the continuing warfare successful Gaza. A staunch state of Israel, helium has rejected calls for a ceasefire.

The 2 main candidates are - for evident reasons - attempting to overgarment Mr Kennedy arsenic a earthy state of the other side.

Mr Trump has offered assorted opinions connected RFK Jr, calling him "Crooked Joe Biden's Political Opponent, not mine" connected his Truth Social relationship - but much precocious calling him "a Democrat 'Plant'".

The interactions betwixt the 2 person been adjacent much analyzable than that. Although Mr Kennedy is simply a predominant professional of Mr Trump, helium claims that helium was approached by allies to spot if helium would beryllium funny successful being Mr Trump's moving mate. The Trump run has vigorously denied the claim.

Brian Hughes, a elder Trump adviser, called Mr Kennedy an "ultra-leftist".

"Despite the dreams of the wide echo chamber, Kennedy is an existential menace to Joe Biden not President Trump," Mr Hughes said successful a statement, citing Mr Kennedy's views connected taxes, fossil fuels and weapon control.

However, a caller NBC News survey indicated that 15% of Trump supporters would power their votes to Mr Kennedy erstwhile presented with his sanction arsenic an enactment - arsenic compared to 7% of Biden voters.

That's a interruption from respective erstwhile polls which showed Mr Kennedy pulling much enactment distant from Mr Biden.

Democrats are inactive disquieted astir that possibility. Local Democratic activists protesting extracurricular the fundraiser called him a "spoiler". And Democrats person mounted ineligible challenges to Kennedy's efforts to get connected the ballot. In Michigan those person travel to naught, arsenic Kennedy precocious gained ballot entree aft being nominated by the tiny Natural Law Party.

In a connection to the BBC, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes took purpose astatine the Kennedy campaign. "The prime is wide this November, we indispensable re-elect President Biden, and determination are simply nary alternatives," she said.

At this constituent successful the run the wide effect of Kennedy's bid is unknowable, said Merrill Matthews, a nonmigratory student with the blimpish Institute for Policy Innovation who has studied the past of third-party campaigns.

But, Mr Matthews said, his beingness successful the contention could origin a fig of surprises, not lone successful adjacent battlegrounds similar Michigan but states which look comparatively harmless for either candidate.

"At a level of 8 oregon 9 percent - astir wherever helium is astatine successful the polls present - his enactment could truly jumble the result successful a fig of places," Mr Matthews said.