Is Myanmar's army reversing its losses? It's complicated

The fortunes of warfare on Myanmar's borderline with Thailand person been turning with bewildering speed.

Two weeks aft losing power of their basal successful Myawaddy, a captious borderline crossing, soldiers loyal to the subject junta that seized powerfulness successful a coup 3 years agone person retaken it.

The embattled junta, which has suffered a bid of humiliating defeats successful different parts of the country, appears to person held the enactment successful Myawaddy,. But the representation is simply a batch much analyzable than this elemental communicative suggests.

The abrupt seizure by the Karen National Union (KNU) of each the subject bases adjacent Myawaddy earlier this period seemed to herald a important displacement successful the civilian warfare which erupted aft the junta seized powerfulness successful a coup 3 years ago.

It was the archetypal clip successful decades that the KNU, Myanmar's longest-running insurgent group, had controlled the town, a existent prize arsenic astir of the country's commercialized with Thailand passes done it, and it is the determination of respective immense and precise lucrative casino complexes.

But the KNU ne'er really occupied Myawaddy, putting conscionable a tiny contingent of fighters from allied People's Defence Forces (PDF) to power the Battalion 275 service base, conscionable extracurricular the town. It kept the aforesaid police, migration and section authorities officials successful spot to tally the municipality and support the borderline commercialized going.

One crushed for the victorious insurgents' reticence was the beingness of other, almighty Karen equipped militias which had until precocious been allied to the subject junta, and whose effect to the KNU's beforehand was uncertain. Avoiding clashes betwixt antithetic Karen groups was a priority, says the KNU leadership.

The biggest of these militias calls itself the Karen National Army (KNA), led by Saw Chit Thu, a warlord who broke distant from the KNU successful the 1990s.

He controls the notorious Shwe Kokko casino complex, which has been accused of hosting abusive scam centres. The wealth that it generates funds a well-paid and well-equipped backstage service of respective 1000 fighters, which since 2010 person been operating arsenic a borderline defender unit supporting the military.

In January Saw Chit Thu announced that helium was severing ties with the junta, but the KNU accuses him of helping the soldiers who had been driven retired of the Battalion 275 base, but had refused to surrender.

The different crushed for the KNU's caution was the military's aerial power, which has been utilized to devastating effect successful different areas wherever its crushed troops person been defeated. Last play Mi35 chopper gunships and Y12 craft bombed KNU positions successful Myawaddy, causing a fig of casualties and driving thousands to question structure connected the Thai broadside of the border.

KNU sources besides accidental they person been asked by the Thai subject not to provoke a conflict for power of Myawaddy, which would disrupt commercialized and nonstop a overmuch larger question of refugees into Thailand.

The KNU enactment ordered its forces to wantonness the Battalion 275 base, partially it said, to debar much demolition successful Myawaddy, but besides to absorption connected a overmuch bigger conflict 30km (18 miles) to the westbound of the town.

Stung by the nonaccomplishment of Myawaddy the junta ordered a ample file of reinforcements, backed by armoured vehicles and artillery, to re-establish its power implicit the roadworthy to the border. This is the biggest counter-attack attempted by the subject since the drawstring of defeats astatine the hands of taste insurgents which began successful Shan State successful October past year.

KNU fighters person been deployed to ambush the file on the roadworthy arsenic it climbs done forested hills extracurricular the municipality of Kawkareik, slowing its advancement to a crawl and destroying a fig of vehicles.

The file is, oregon was, being commanded by General Soe Win, fig 2 successful the subject hierarchy, a motion of however important its occurrence is to the junta. He has present disappeared from nationalist view, raising speculation that helium whitethorn person been wounded, oregon perchance purged by his boss, the junta person Min Aung Hlaing.

Stopping oregon driving this file backmost would correspond a acold much important accomplishment than occupying Myawaddy, ensuring that each entree to the borderline successful this country remains nether KNU control.

But the KNU faces a fig of dilemmas.

It says the fig of radical displaced by warring successful Karen State has risen to much than 700,000 radical since the coup, a staggering fractional of its population. Escalating the combat against the junta volition marque that overmuch worse.

It indispensable besides support unity among its 7 equipped brigades, which person traditionally exercised a precocious grade of autonomy successful their areas. Before the coup determination had been bitter disputes wrong the KNU implicit however acold to compromise with the cardinal authorities successful the interests of bid and promoting concern successful 1 of Asia's astir impoverished regions.

The KNU indispensable besides present determine what its argumentation volition beryllium towards Myawaddy, the mainstay of the system successful Karen State. Historic mistrust and resentment of Saw Chit Thu's breakaway KNA runs high, and the authoritative KNU presumption of the casino complexes is that they are a root of transnational transgression similar quality trafficking and should beryllium closed down.

Yet Saw Chit Thu has ambitious plans to grow Shwe Kokko, successful concern with a Chinese company, Yatai, into a giant, cross-border amusement zone. He is almighty capable to thwart immoderate effort to unopen him down, unless it is backed by Thailand, which provides energy and telecommunications to Shwe Kokko. But that is improbable portion determination are influential Thai figures with a fiscal involvement successful the Shwe Kokko project. There are adjacent immoderate elder KNU figures implicated successful the casino business.

From discussions with KNU sources it seems the radical was not yet acceptable to grip the complexities of occupying Myawaddy erstwhile it recovered itself successful power of the subject basal determination connected 11 April.

The KNU has been warring for a self-governing Karen authorities for much than 75 years, and its enactment takes a agelong presumption of the conflict.

It has already tied its fortunes firmly to the anti-coup absorption movement, nurturing and grooming the PDFs formed by dissidents fleeing from the cities, and providing a harmless haven for the National Unity Government, which represents the medication ousted by the coup.

But co-ordinating the mosaic of taste armies, warlords and PDF militias into an all-out battle which tin unseat the subject junta is simply a monumental task, the occurrence of which is inactive acold from certain.