Nifty 50 May series: 4 stocks where investors can park their money; do you own?

Rising planetary crude prices, a depreciating rupee and persistent overseas money outflows further weighed connected sentiment, according to traders. Profit-taking besides came into play arsenic the 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 609.28 points oregon 0.82 per cent to settee astatine 73,730.16. During the day, it mislaid 722.79 points oregon 0.97 per cent to 73,616.65. The NSE Nifty declined 150.40 points oregon 0.67 per cent to 22,419.95.

Despite the benchmark indices experiencing notable losses, the mid and smallcap indices showcased their spot by hitting caller grounds highs and closing with steadfast gains. The BSE Midcap scale closed 0.83 per cent higher astatine 41,587.77 aft hitting its caller grounds precocious of 41,628.75 during the session. The BSE Smallcap scale settled with a mild summation of 0.27 per cent astatine 47,239.29 aft scaling its caller highest of 47435.39.

In its derivatives monthly rollover report, home brokerage steadfast Religare Broking revealed that Nifty 50 closed astatine astir 22,600 aft volume-weighted mean terms (VWAP)-based buying enactment was witnessed successful the 2nd fractional of the day.

In its report, Religare highlighted that astatine 96 per cent, realty is the assemblage wherever the highest rollover was witnessed successful the April series. Whereas astatine 87 per cent, telecom is the assemblage wherever the lowest rollover was witnessed.
 

Nifty, Bank Nifty derivates summary

Nifty futures has rolled astatine astir 65 per cent compared to 70 per cent which is lesser with respect to the erstwhile series. The Open Interest (OI) for the caller declaration is higher by astir 2 lakhs with respect to the past period declaration implying much agelong positions, according to Religare Broking.

Bank Nifty futures rolled astatine 74 per cent compared to 87 per cent, little than the erstwhile month. Banknifty futures person seen simplification of OI of astir 32 lakh with respect to the past month. This mightiness beryllium due to the fact that of the lesser positions successful Bank Nifty during the April expiry.
 

Which stocks to put successful May bid arsenic per Religare Broking?

State Bank of India (SBI), UPL Ltd, GAIL and Infosys are the apical picks for the May series, according to Religare Broking.

SBI (CMP: 805):

The banal gained implicit 8 per cent with nary large alteration successful OI. Rollovers are little astatine 86 per cent indicating lesser carrying guardant of erstwhile Shorts. ''With caller currency based accumulation, we judge banal would proceed its northwards move. One should beryllium positively biased with a halt astatine 740,'' said Religare Broking.

UPL(CMP: 505):

After a prolonged downtrend, UPL gained implicit 11 per cent with simplification of immoderate OI indicating abbreviated covering. Good transportation information and different method parameters suggests the banal is successful accumulation signifier and whitethorn yet commencement moving higher. ''We judge its prudent creating Longs successful the antagonistic with a halt astatine 450,'' said the brokerage.

GAIL (CMP: 208):

The banal gained 15 per cent successful the erstwhile bid and added 10 per cent OI with higher rolls than 3-M mean indicating agelong rolls. ''With decent enactment successful past week of rollovers, we judge the banal mightiness commercialized with Positive bias successful the scope of 192-230,'' said Religare Broking.

Infosys (CMP: 1436):

The banal mislaid much than 4 per cent with 20 per cent OI summation implying arsenic shorts. Rollovers are successful enactment with the 3-M average. However going forward, 1 should clasp connected for caller shorting successful the stock. ''We judge banal mightiness witnesser decent abbreviated covering successful the days to come,'' said the brokerage.
 

Outlook for April

Nifty Futures declaration OI started with astir 124 lakh compared 122 lakh successful April. Bank nifty futures person seen an OI of astir 18 lakh compared to 50 lakh successful April.

The highest Nifty May monthly options OI is astatine 22,000 PE and 22,500 CE. Nifty 22,500 Call OI stands astatine astir 50,000 contracts and 22,000 Put OI astatine astir 70,000 contracts.

''At expiry, VIX was astatine astir 11 per cent levels implying 670 unusual points plaything successful the NIFTY successful adjacent 30 days,'' said Religare Broking.

The brokerage believes that accusation exertion (IT) and banking are the sectors that tin outperform the scale successful May series. Foreign organization investors' (FIIs) agelong ratio is present astatine 40 per cent compared to 45 per cent antecedently successful scale futures implying much hedged positions into the May series. The IVs for options person declined marginally present astatine 12 per cent compared to 14 per cent implying lesser plaything successful May series.

Technical View: A operation of much agelong and immoderate abbreviated rolls was seen successful May series. For May futures with an mean terms of astir 22,450 which becomes a pivot for the month. Till the clip Nifty trades supra 22,200-22,250 connected spot, the scale is successful a bargain connected dips mode for the archetypal play expiry.

''We expect the Nifty to find beardown enactment astatine 22,200-22,250 levels for May series. On spot ground 22,200-22,800 mightiness beryllium the scope for Nifty for archetypal fortnight of May series,'' said Religare Broking.

''Bank Nifty had out-performed Nifty successful the April, we judge it would commercialized successful tandem with the benchmark for the upcoming series,'' added the brokerage. For this series, ratio omniscient (Bank Nifty/Nifty) has a absorption astatine 2.20 and enactment astatine 2.05. The ratio betwixt Bank Nifty and Nifty presently astatine astir 2.15. The large enactment for Banknifty would beryllium astir 46,500 levels. ''We expect Bank Nifty to beryllium successful 46,500-50,000 levels for the archetypal fortnight of May series,'' said Religare Broking.

On the outlook for Nifty 50, Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd said, ''The intermediate volatility is mean during the net play and mixed planetary cues are further adding to the choppiness. We suggest continuing with stock-specific trading attack and utilizing dips to adhd prime names.''

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations supra are those of idiosyncratic analysts and broking companies, not of Mint. We counsel investors to cheque with certified experts earlier taking immoderate concern decisions.

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Published: 27 Apr 2024, 05:23 PM IST