Tata Motors share price in focus ahead of Q4 results today: Here's what analysts expect

The Tata Motors rider conveyance income successful India and Jaguar Land Rover income remains strong. The Medium and Heavy commercialized vehicles income though thrust connected a beardown outlook led by beardown economical maturation expectations successful the state , nevertheless person seen tepid Q4 income acknowledgment to the precocious basal of past twelvemonth during the March 4th and besides ongoing wide elections successful the country.

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Volumes to stay a mixed container with beardown PV , tepid CV sales

The Domestic Passenger conveyance income connected a beardown footing are expected to person grown 14.7% year-on-year and 12.4% sequentially to 55,651 units during the 4th ending March'2024.

The mean and dense commercialized conveyance income astatine 52,186 units are apt to person grown 12.1% sequentially though ain 6.9% year-on-year during the March 4th arsenic per HDFC Securities data.

The Light Commercial Vehicle income that person 14.8% sequentially nevertheless besides are down 4.4% year-on-year to 57,253 units during the Q4

Analysts astatine Motilal Oswal fiscal Services expect CV maturation to mean up to 1HFY25 mostly owed to a slowdown successful concern enactment up of elections, and expect request to revive successful 2HFY25. The Commercial vehicles are pegged to turn 7% CAGR (compound yearly maturation rate) implicit FY24-26. 

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Firm Domestic performance

During the 4th ending March'2024  analysts astatine Kotak Institutional Equities expect standalone concern revenues to summation by 8% twelvemonth connected twelvemonth , led by 15% yoy summation successful mean selling terms owed to a richer merchandise premix and terms hikes taken implicit the past 1 year, partially offset by 6% twelvemonth connected twelvemonth diminution successful volumes owed to anemic request trends successful Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle oregon MHCV trucks connected relationship of elections and  higher base. 

On the operating front, they  expect wide Ebitda borderline to amended by 170 bps sequentially to 13.1% driven by operating leverage payment and commodity tailwinds successful 4QFY24.\

The  domestic Passenger concern that stay connected beardown footing is apt to spot bully betterment successful Earnings earlier interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda). The Ebitda is pegged to amended to 7.4% for PV ( up 90 ground points sequentially) successful 4QFY24 driven by a richer merchandise premix (higher premix of SUV segment) and commodity tailwinds, partially offset by terms cuts taken successful Energy Vehicles . 

Jaguar Land Rover expected to study steadfast maturation trend

Meanwhile astatine the consolidated level While Jaguar Land Rover Volumes are expected to stay strong. Kotak analysts expect JLR volumes (excluding China JV) to summation by 8% sequentially led by a beardown bid book. 

Those astatine Motilal Oswal Financial Services nevertheless expect JLR volumes to spot 17% YoY growth. 

JLR operating show nevertheless tin beryllium influenced by merchandise premix and selling spends

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Overall, evenues (ex China JV) are anticipated to summation by 7% sequentially successful 4QFY24. Kotak analysts expect reported Ebitda borderline to summation by 40 bps sequentially to 16.6% driven by  a richer merchandise premix and operating leverage benefit, partially offset by higher VME. As a result, they expect JLR EBIT borderline is pegged to travel successful astatine 9.4% successful 4QFY24 arsenic per Kotak. MOFSL besides expects estimation an EBIT borderline of 9.6% ( up 80bp sequentially ) for JLR, led mostly by operating leverage

Key monitorable 

As the merchandise premix and selling expenses volition beryllium watched from JLR performance, the  other monitorables see absorption guidance for FY24 successful presumption of prime up successful Commercial Vehicle income and besides Electric Vehicles progress.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made supra are those of idiosyncratic analysts oregon broking companies, and not of Mint. We counsel investors to cheque with certified experts earlier taking immoderate concern decisions

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Published: 10 May 2024, 12:49 PM IST