Volatility index spike: Do election bets need to be hedged?

1 week ago 9

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Livemint 1 min read 09 May 2024, 07:15 AM IST

As galore  concern    positions are apt  to person  been built connected  the presumption  of a wide   BJP triumph   and the argumentation  stableness  assured by that, immoderate  whiff of a imaginable   upset is definite   to person  a marketplace  impact. As galore concern positions are apt to person been built connected the presumption of a wide BJP triumph and the argumentation stableness assured by that, immoderate whiff of a imaginable upset is definite to person a marketplace impact.

Summary

  • The banal market’s VIX index, which conveys the level of volatility expected, was astatine a three-quarter debased successful the week aft Lok Sabha polls got underway, but has spiked lately. Has the likelihood of a BJP triumph been re-estimated by investors?

Nerves successful Indian banal markets person grown taut successful caller days. Although the broader S&P BSE Sensex has much oregon little been level since Lok Sabha polling began connected 19 April, the VIX scale has changeable up. This scale conveys the level of volatility expected. As precocious arsenic 23 April, it was astatine a three-quarter low, which was singular successful the discourse of elections. By 7 May, however, it had leapt 70% higher from that idyllic point. 

So, what took the calm apart? Expectations. As marketplace participants constituent out, a diminution successful elector turnout during the archetypal 2 phases of the polls successful examination with 2019 whitethorn person been taken arsenic a motion of the result being little predictably inclined towards a instrumentality of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. As galore concern positions are apt to person been built connected the presumption of a wide BJP triumph and the argumentation stableness assured by that, immoderate whiff of a imaginable upset is definite to person a marketplace impact. 

Other factors whitethorn person moved the VIX too, specified arsenic a pugnacious attack taken by India’s slope regulator. But the large crushed seems to beryllium a unreserved to hedge bets. “Straddle" strategies are said to beryllium successful play. It’s logical. In immoderate democracy, it’s prudent not to assertion a foolproof crystal shot for canvass results.

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