Week Ahead: Q4 Results, Iran-Israel conflict, global cues among key market triggers this week

Domestic markets edged little amid excessive volatility and mislaid implicit 1 and a fractional per cent, tracking feeble planetary cues. The code was antagonistic from the beginning, which further deteriorated with a diminution successful satellite indices nevertheless rebound connected Friday trimmed immoderate losses. 

Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex, settled astatine 22,147 and 73,088.33 levels respectively. Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty snapped their four-week rising streak amidst escalating geopolitical tensions successful the Middle East.

Also Read: IT jobs FY24 review: Headcount crashes by 63,759 successful TCS, Infosys, and Wipro; attrition down sequentially

US-rate delicate IT stocks dropped 4.71 per cent implicit the week, their 2nd worst week successful 12 months, connected fading hopes of aboriginal US complaint cuts and softer reports from marketplace leaders TCS and Infosys. Overall, each the cardinal sectors felt the vigor wherein IT, realty and banking were among the apical losers. The broader indices besides witnessed unit and shed successful the scope of 1.4 per cent-2.7 per cent.

‘’Optimism prevailed with hopes of constricted prospects of escalation successful Iran-Israel tensions. However, the home marketplace failed to offset the losses sustained passim the week. Globally, caution persisted arsenic the concern successful the Middle East remains fragile,'' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

‘’Mid- and small-cap stocks besides corrected, highlighting concerns implicit premium valuations. Muted Q4 net expectations and anemic IT results could widen the consolidation. Large caps could connection solace for investors, fixed net stability,'' added Nair.

Also Read: Reliance Q4 Results Preview: Revenue, EBITDA to emergence 10% YoY connected retail, telecom growth; O2C biz apt stronger

Coming to superior markets, a fewer archetypal nationalist offerings (IPO) and listings are slated crossed the mainboard and small-and-medium enterprises (SME) segment. The week volition beryllium captious from home and method constituent of presumption arsenic investors volition oculus economical indicators and the latest firm results.

Overall, analysts expect volatility to proceed implicit quarterly results and said that Nifty 50 needs to person sustainability astatine 22,300 earlier it tin determination to recovery, Experts counsel traders to similar a hedged attack and hold for clarity.
 

Here are the cardinal triggers for banal markets successful the coming week:
 

Q4 Results, macro data

The ongoing Q4FY24 net play volition beryllium a large origin successful driving the marketplace movement. Some large companies volition denote their quarterly numbers specified arsenic Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, HCL Technologies, Maruti Suzuki, among others. On the macroeconomic front, India's purchasing managers indices (PMI) numbers volition beryllium released.

4 caller IPOs, 5 listings to deed D-Street

In the mainboard segment, JNK India IPO volition unfastened for subscription portion Vodafone FPO volition reason connected April 22. In the SME segment, Varyaa Creations IPO, Emmforce Autotech IPO, and Shivam Chemicals IPO volition unfastened for bidding.

Among listings, shares of Vodafone FPO volition debut connected BSE, NSE. From SMEs, shares of Greenhitech Ventures, Birdy's IPO, Ramdevbaba Solvent IPO, and Faalcon Concepts IPO volition debut connected SME platforms this week.

FII Activity

Foreign organization investors (FIIs) were nett sellers portion home organization investors (DIIs) were buyers past week, according to banal speech data. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) person tuned nett sellers successful Indian markets owed to precocious US ostentation people successful March and the surging US enslaved yields.

‘’A large inclination successful FPI enactment this period is that FPIs person turned sellers into indebtedness aft sustained buying for respective months. In April done 20th FPIs sold indebtedness worthy ₹12,885 crore. This again is the effect of the rising US enslaved yields and the interest regarding rupee depreciation,'' said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

The hotter-than-expected US ostentation has chopped backmost complaint chopped hopes. This on with the consequent spike successful enslaved output (the 10-year rising supra 4.6 per cent) led to large selling successful the Indian currency market, according to the marketplace expert.

Global Cues, Iran-Israel conflict

Escalation successful the struggle betwixt Iran and Israel led to nett booking from the markets with Israel attacking Iran causing uncertainty and fearfulness successful the market. Major US indices S&P 500 and Dow marked six consecutive regular declines the longest losing streak since October 2022. 

‘’A imaginable hold of a US complaint chopped owed to higher-than-expected inflation, robust retail sales, and elevated lipid prices invoked subdued sentiments. This was evident done notable upticks successful the dollar index, US enslaved yields, and the terms of yellowish metal,'' according to Geojits' Vinod Nair.

This week besides promises to beryllium important for the marketplace arsenic ongoing worries of Iran-Israel struggle emerge. If tensions escalate significantly, determination a hazard of panic selling and accrued volatility crossed planetary banal markets, according to Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst astatine Swastika Investmart Ltd.

With April period coming to an extremity purchasing managers indices (PMI) numbers for large countries crossed the globe including the US and the Eurozone volition travel out. Advance gross home merchandise (GDP) numbers of the US and institution net volition beryllium different large events that volition usher the market.

On the macroeconomic front, People’s Bank of China volition denote indebtedness loan premier complaint for 1 twelvemonth and 5 years connected April 22, 2024. The Bank of Japan volition denote its involvement complaint determination connected April 26, 2024.

The US Unemployment Claims volition beryllium announced connected April 25, 2024, and movements successful US enslaved yields and the dollar scale volition beryllium important factors influencing marketplace sentiment.

‘’Among the cardinal satellite indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is hovering astir its mean word enactment portion of 100 DEMA i.e. 37,800 and if fails to clasp the aforesaid past the 36,900-37,200 portion would beryllium the adjacent large support. In lawsuit of recovery, the 38,150-38,500 portion would enactment arsenic a beardown hurdle,'' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Oil Prices

Oil prices person risen 16 per cent truthful acold this year adjacent the $90 per barrel-mark, with proviso worries precocious fixed escalating Middle East tensions betwixt Iran and Israel and the persistent attacks connected vigor infrastructure betwixt Ukraine and Russia. The marketplace volition beryllium keeping a adjacent oculus connected the fluctuations successful crude lipid prices, arsenic geopolitical events often interaction them, said analysts.

Corporate Action

In the coming week, shares of respective companies including Fortis Malar Hospitals, ICICI Securities, among others volition commercialized ex-dividend, portion different firms specified arsenic Tip Industries and IIFL Finance volition state a buyback and a rights contented respectively. Some different companies volition commercialized ex-bonus and ex-split. Check afloat database here

Technical View

Nifty 50 has adeptly defended its upward sloping enactment trendline, aligning intimately with the psychologically important 22,000 mark. It has besides exhibited a bullish reversal signal, resembling a Bullish Piercing Line signifier connected the regular charts. This suggests a imaginable bullish momentum aft a corrective phase.

‘’Looking ahead, the adjacent absorption level to show is astir 22,300, with a anticipation of extending to 22,500 if sustained momentum persists. Immediate enactment rests astatine 22,000. Analyzing the regular chart, enactment of a Piercing Line pattern, further reinforcing bullish sentiment,'' said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd.

The indicator has breached the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acceptable astatine 22,067, indicating a affirmative short-term trend. A adjacent supra this moving mean strengthens the bullish outlook, according to Nanda.

Market experts besides highlighted that the gait of the emergence has been gradual for the past 4 months and Nifty has penetrated the little set of the rising transmission but managed to adjacent supra the same

‘’We request sustainability supra abbreviated word moving mean i.e. 20 DEMA, which presently lies astir 22,300 to fortify the recovery. On the downside, we expect the 21,500-21,700 portion to enactment arsenic a cushion. Meanwhile, traders should proceed with a hedged attack amid the mixed indications and hold for clarity,'' said Religare Brokings' Ajit Mishra.

There is simply a batch of wealth waiting connected the sidelines to participate the home market, arsenic India's semipermanent maturation communicative provides an accidental for investors to deploy funds aft a steadfast correction, according to Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.

The Bank Nifty scale displayed beardown bullish momentum arsenic it formed a bullish piercing candlestick signifier from the enactment level of 46,500. The contiguous absorption for the scale is located astatine 48,000, wherever determination is simply a important buildup of unfastened involvement connected the telephone side, indicating a imaginable hurdle. 

‘’The scale has established contiguous enactment betwixt 47,200 and 47,000. Any pullbacks towards this enactment portion are seen arsenic buying opportunities, suggesting continued bullish sentiment if these levels hold,'' said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst astatine LKP Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations supra are those of idiosyncratic analysts and broking companies, not of Mint. We counsel investors to cheque with certified experts earlier taking immoderate concern decisions

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Published: 21 Apr 2024, 06:28 AM IST