Week Ahead: Q4 Results, US Fed Policy, Auto sales, global cues among key market triggers this week

Indian banal markets rebounded aft 2 weeks of profit-taking and gained implicit a per cent. The week kicked disconnected connected an upbeat note, buoyed by affirmative cues from the planetary markets. However, volatility ensued arsenic the week progressed, with the markets grappling with uncertainties surrounding mixed earnings. 

A crisp surge connected Thursday further eased concerns but nett taking successful the last league capped the momentum. However, Friday saw a correction astatine higher levels. The existent spot came from the broader market, wherever mid-cap and small-cap indices surged by astir 4 per cent. Volatile planetary cues and selling by overseas investors capped gains successful large-cap stocks.

Also Read: Nifty 50 May series: 4 stocks wherever investors tin parkland their money; bash you own?

Eventually, some home equity benchmarks, Nifty 50 and Sensex, settled astatine 22,419.90 and 73,730.10 levels respectively. All the cardinal sectors participated successful the betterment wherein realty, metallic and pharma posted beardown gains. Kotak Mahindra Bank tumbled 10.27 per cent, its worst week successful astir 4 years aft the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) barred the backstage lender from taking caller integer clients and issuing recognition cards. On a play basis, the BSE benchmark precocious 641.83 points oregon 0.87, and the NSE Nifty climbed 272.95 points oregon 1.23 per cent.

"Relief from Middle East tensions, coupled with a correction successful lipid prices, and a bolstered Indian economical outlook fuelled by elevated composite PMI information from manufacturing and work sectors, propelled a marketplace rally. However, the unexpected diminution successful US GDP and a surge successful the US halfway PCE terms scale triggered a planetary banal marketplace downturn connected the past trading day,'' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

The home marketplace lagged its Asian peers arsenic Q4 net remained mostly subdued, with anemic results from IT and a fewer scale heavyweights besides disappointing. The anticipation of an betterment successful plus prime and the RBI's regulatory ecosystem for backstage banks led the PSU banks to outperform.

Also Read: Federal Bank is Religare's prime of the period for May, 13% upside seen astatine TP of ₹176; should you buy?

Nair expects a consolidation successful the adjacent term, starring investors to question refuge successful bonds and gold. The upcoming US Fed policy, US nonfarm payroll information volition dictate the planetary market, portion the ongoing Q4 net reports are poised to power the home marketplace dynamics, according to the marketplace expert.

This week, a fewer archetypal nationalist offerings (IPO) and listings are slated crossed the mainboard and small-and-medium enterprises (SME) segment, nevertheless wide buzz is subdued successful the superior markets. The week volition beryllium captious from home and method constituent of presumption arsenic investors volition planetary indicators and the latest firm results.

Overall, analysts expect volatility to proceed implicit the ongoing quarterly results and said that Nifty 50 has a robust enactment successful the scope of 22,200-22,300. Experts counsel traders to absorption connected performing sectors and stock-specific enactment for bully opportunities.

Here are the cardinal triggers for banal markets successful the coming week:

Q4 Results:

This week, the ongoing Q4FY24 net volition beryllium 1 of the main factors successful driving the marketplace movement. Some large companies volition denote their quarterly results specified arsenic Dabur, Federal Bank, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Tata Technologies, Titan, Adani Power, UltraTech Cement, among others.

Auto sales, US Fed Policy

Auto stocks volition beryllium successful absorption arsenic car companies volition denote their monthly car income numbers for April connected May 1, 2024. The upcoming week volition besides spot a important absorption connected monetary argumentation decisions of cardinal banks, arsenic the US Federal Reserve volition statesman its two-day argumentation gathering connected April 30. 

The US Fed volition denote its involvement complaint determination aft its two-day argumentation gathering connected May 1, 2024. According to astir analysts, the US Federal Reserve volition permission its benchmark overnight involvement complaint unchanged. While nary complaint cuts are expected, the committee's commentary volition beryllium intimately scrutinized, according to Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

4 caller IPOs, 4 listings to deed D-Street

From the SME segment, Storage Technologies & Automation IPO, Amkay Products IPO, Sai Swami Metals & Alloys IPO volition unfastened for subscription connected April 30. Slone Infosystems IPO volition unfastened for bidding connected May 3.

Among listings, shares of JNK India volition get listed connected banal exchanges BSE, NSE connected April 30. Shares of Varyaa Creations, Shivam Chemicals, and Emmforce Autotech volition besides debut connected BSE SME connected April 30.

FII Activity

Foreign organization investors (FIIs) were nett sellers past week  stocks worthy ₹14,704 crore and home organization investors (DIIs) were nett buyers buying stocks worthy ₹20,797 crore. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) person turned into nett sellers successful Indian equities and indebtedness markets ever since reducing their momentum of buying with the onset of the caller fiscal 2024-25 (FY25). 

FPIs person sold ₹6,304 crore worthy of Indian equities and the full outflow stands astatine ₹13,144 crore arsenic of April 26, taking into relationship debt, hybrid, debt-VRR, and equities, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data. The full indebtedness outflows stands astatine ₹10,640 crore truthful acold this month.

According to marketplace analysts, the large trigger for the renewed FPI selling, successful some equity and debt, is the sustained emergence successful US enslaved yields. The 10-year enslaved output present stands astatine astir 4.7 per cent which is charismatic for overseas investors.

Core ostentation successful US jumped to 3.7 per cent which has reduced the prospects of an aboriginal complaint chopped by the US Federal Reserve. This volition support yields precocious triggering much FPI outflows successful some equity and debt, according to Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.
 

Global Cues

The outlook for the marketplace volition beryllium guided by the large home and planetary economical data. Economic information releases from China and the US, on with movements successful the planetary currency market, volition beryllium the large factors to consider. The question of US dollar, US enslaved yields, and crude lipid prices volition besides dictate marketplace movement. US markets volition enactment successful absorption owed to the Fed complaint decision.

‘’We expect volatility to stay precocious citing mixed indications from the planetary front, particularly the US markets. Though the US benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has rebounded of late, we request sustainability supra 38,700 levels to reclaim spot other nett taking volition resume. Besides, net announcements would further adhd to the choppiness crossed sectors,'' said Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Oil Prices

International crude lipid prices settled higher aft consolidation connected Friday, banking connected enactment from geopolitical tensions successful the Middle East. However,  a crisp US dollar and higher-than-expected US ostentation diminished hopes that the US Federal Reserve would chopped involvement rates soon, limiting gains successful prices. Brent crude futures past settled 49 cents higher, oregon 0.55 per cent, to $89.50 per barrel, portion the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 28 cents, oregon 0.34 per cent higher, to $83.85 per barrel, according to quality bureau Reuters.

Corporate Action

In the coming week, shares of immoderate companies including CRISIL Ltd, ABB India, 360 One WAM, among others volition commercialized ex-dividend starting from Monday, April 29. With these companies, immoderate different firms volition besides commercialized ex-split, ex-rights, and ex-bonus, according to information connected the BSE. Check afloat database here

Technical View

The markets person been gradually climbing, reflecting a cautious optimism amid mixed signals. Nifty has surpassed the short-term moving mean i.e. 20 DEMA, indicating a strengthening inclination and we expect robust enactment successful the 22,000-22,300 range, successful lawsuit of immoderate downward movement. 

‘’However, the precocious bound of Nifty's upward channel, astir 22,750-22,900, could bounds further gains. We advocator a prudent strategy of buying connected marketplace declines, with a absorption connected performing sectors/themes viz. metal, auto, defense, power, and prime banking for imaginable opportunities,'' said Religare Brokings' Ajit Mishra.

On the method front, some Nifty and Bank Nifty faced absorption astatine important levels. Nifty couldn't clasp supra 22,530, leaving the 22,400-22,200 portion arsenic contiguous support, said analysts. ‘’A large enactment level lies astatine the 100-day moving mean (DMA) astir 21,900. If Nifty surpasses 22,620, the May bid high, a imaginable rally towards 23,000 becomes possible. Otherwise, expect continued volatility wrong the 21,800-22,500 range,'' said Swastika Investmarts' Santosh Meena.

In Bank Nifty, the lack of sustained buying involvement was notable, accompanied by a deficiency of enactment from the momentum indicator divergence, hindering the upward momentum. ‘’This suggests a imaginable consolidation signifier successful the abbreviated term. Key absorption rests connected the pivotal level of 47,500, portion 48,000 holds important value arsenic a important barrier. A breach beneath 48,000 could importantly displacement sentiment, perchance prompting a retest of levels astir 47,500 to 47,250, oregon the 50-day elemental moving average,'' said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations supra are those of idiosyncratic analysts and broking companies, not of Mint. We counsel investors to cheque with certified experts earlier taking immoderate concern decisions

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Published: 28 Apr 2024, 06:08 AM IST