Nifty hits record high for 25th time in 2024! Will the bull run continue?

In 2023 alone, the Nifty acceptable grounds highs connected 27 occasions, a notable achievement. Almost closing successful connected this milestone, successful conscionable the archetypal fractional of 2024, it is already adjacent the fig of caller peaks reached passim the full erstwhile year. Since the twelvemonth 2000, the Nifty has recorded its highest fig of grounds highs successful 3 circumstantial years: 2006, 2014, and 2021, totaling 54 highs during these periods. However, it experienced nary caller peaks during six different years: 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2016.

The Nifty soared to an all-time precocious of 24,124 and the Sensex deed its grounds highest of 79,546. Nifty crossed the intelligence people of 24,000 for the archetypal clip successful the erstwhile league June 27. Remarkably, it took lone 23 sessions to emergence from 23,000 to 24,000, compared to the 88 sessions it antecedently took to determination from 22,000 to 23,000 successful May 2024

Sensex besides deed the 79,000 people for the archetypal clip successful the erstwhile session, signaling a steadfast and sustained assurance successful the Indian market, underpinned by beardown fundamentals successful cardinal sectors arsenic good arsenic beardown buying successful blue-chip companies.

"Certainly bulls couldn’t person asked for thing amended than this aft what we saw connected the time erstwhile predetermination results were announced The scale recovered each of its Election Day losses successful conscionable 3 trading sessions. This indispensable person been 1 of the fastest recoveries successful the past of Indian superior markets which tin chiefly beryllium attributed to money flows," said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities.

Sheth further pointed retired that looking astatine FPI’s money travel information from Sebi, you volition spot that they person been buyers successful the past 12 sessions from 10th to 26th June. They person pumped successful astir ₹32,087 crore successful Indian equity markets. DIIs person pumped successful ₹20,002 crore successful the aforesaid period. Retail investors connected the predetermination time unsocial bought stocks worthy ₹21,179 crore. Thus marketplace participants person been buying equities left, close and halfway implicit the past fortnight which has chiefly driven the markets higher.

Despite concerns astir the marketplace being overbought, analysts stay optimistic astir sustaining this rally successful the adjacent term. They mention beardown gains successful large-cap stocks arsenic a cardinal enactment origin driving marketplace momentum.

"This accelerated growth, contempt concerns implicit valuation, suggests a bullish outlook for the Indian market. The existent momentum indicates that the Sensex mightiness soon interaction different level, earlier the Union Budget. Large-cap stocks, peculiarly successful the banking and telecom sectors, are driving this upward inclination with their coagulated fundamentals, reflecting affirmative marketplace sentiment and capitalist confidence. Going forward, these sectors are apt to proceed supporting the market's maturation trajectory," said Trivesh, COO Tradejini.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist astatine Geojit Financial Services, besides expressed assurance that the existent bull tally successful Indian markets is apt to beryllium sustained successful the adjacent term, driven chiefly by large-cap stocks. He highlighted expectations of accrued overseas inflows into India, citing beardown macroeconomic fundamentals compared to different emerging markets.

Addressing concerns astir marketplace overvaluation, Vijayakumar dismissed the conception of a bubble forming, noting that Nifty's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 21x FY25E net remains beneath the perceived bubble threshold of 23x P/E ratio. He emphasised that this valuation level supports continued marketplace optimism without important overheating risks.

Outlook Ahead: Analysts spot Nifty astir 24,500 successful July

Going ahead, Sheth noted that from a seasonality perspective, July has been 1 of the astir bullish months for Indian equity markets. Nifty has closed connected a affirmative enactment successful 9 retired of the past 10 years with an mean summation of 3.3 percent. With bulls sitting firmly successful the driving spot and aggregate factors similar liquidity, seasonality, and momentum successful bulls’ favor, 1 tin expect the rally to proceed successful July with a people of 24,500 connected the index.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking, besides expects the ongoing bull inclination to continue. Following the banking sector, helium anticipates that IT and FMCG volition play important roles successful maintaining the affirmative momentum. “With the Nifty crossing the 24,000 mark, we spot imaginable for it to trial 24,500, with enactment astir the 23,600 level. Participants should align their positions accordingly and look for buying opportunities connected dips," advised Mishra.

Rahul Sharma, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, JM Financial Services, besides expects momentum to proceed with absorption levels placed astatine 24,200 and 24,450.

From an concern perspective, VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, advised sticking to large-cap stocks amidst the ongoing record-breaking rally. He cautioned against investing heavy successful small-cap stocks during this period.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made supra are those of idiosyncratic analysts oregon broking companies, and not of Mint. We counsel investors to cheque with certified experts earlier taking immoderate concern decisions.

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Published: 28 Jun 2024, 12:43 PM IST