Iran’s supreme leader is terrified of people power

The streets of Tehran, the capital, were uncannily quiescent connected polling time with galore radical dismissing the workout arsenic a farce successful a state being ruined by dictatorship. Instead of queues extracurricular polling stations, predetermination monitors slept astatine their desks successful bare mosques.

Don’t mistake calm for stability, however. The strategy is inactive reeling from the mysterious decease of the statesmanlike incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi, successful a chopper clang connected May 19th. And the astonishment results mean a 2nd circular volition instrumentality spot connected July 5th, which could further exposure the fissures successful Iranian nine and the fragility of the regime.

Iran’s governmental strategy is simply a hybrid that mixes elements of democracy, subject regularisation and spiritual authority. The clerics and subject commanders who predominate the strategy had looked to Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf arsenic their candidate. He is simply a stalwart of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the clerical authorities’ praetorian guard. Yet helium came successful 3rd spot and is present retired of the race.

In the pb with 10.4 cardinal votes is Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old surgeon who was a wellness curate successful a reform-leaning authorities 2 decades ago. He has decried the regime’s corruption and brutal enforcement of the mandatory veil and called for engagement with the West. He has the backing of a reformist bloc hoping for a comeback. 

Behind him basal Jawad Zarif, the overseas curate who negotiated a atomic woody with America and others successful 2015; and 2 erstwhile presidents, Muhammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani.

At his heels with 9.5 cardinal votes is Saeed Jalili, a 58-year-old zealot who looks a decennary older than helium is. Mr Jalili blames Iran’s economical malaise connected sanctions and calls for confrontation with America and engagement with Russia and China. He denounces anyone seeking societal liberalisation arsenic a counter-revolutionary. 

He has the backing of the Paydari (or Stabilisation) Front, a increasing question of the militantly spiritual right. He was wounded successful the Iran-Iraq warfare and graduated from Imam Sadiq, a university-cum-seminary successful Tehran. He wrote his doctorate connected the Prophet Muhammad’s diplomacy and, arsenic a erstwhile main negotiator connected the atomic file, took pridefulness successful his refusal to compromise. Such is his spiritual extremism that adjacent the regime’s pragmatic apical brass consciousness unsettled.

A riveting 2nd circular could present unfold. Both candidates inactive person overmuch to prove. Mr Jalili received lone fractional the votes Mr Raisi won successful the predetermination of 2021. Meanwhile Mr Pezeshkian has not convinced galore salient reformers. They see Mir Hossein Moussavi, the statesmanlike campaigner who mislaid the rigged statesmanlike predetermination of 2009 and remains nether location arrest, and Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani, the girl of a erstwhile president. Mr Pezeshkian is simply a “wet blanket", says a boycotter who erstwhile voted for reformists, but present deems the erstwhile curate excessively small excessively late.

In bid to rally enactment and rise the turnout, some candidates are apt to denounce their rival arsenic an existential menace and question to exploit polarisation successful Iran. In his casual checked shirts unbuttoned astatine the neck, Mr Pezeshkian volition pass mean Iranians exhausted by the authorities of the dangers of different puritanical wave. 

In his starched achromatic collars buttoned up to the throat, Mr Jalili volition emphasise the value of defending the regime’s standards, mores and theocracy. In a boost to him, Mr Jalil has won the enactment of Mr Qalibaf, the runner-up, who has urged his 3.4m voters to “stop the existent that caused today’s economical and governmental problems," a tacit rebuke of reformists. Had Mr Qalibaf and Mr Jalili, bitter rivals, not divided the vote, 1 of their blimpish ilk would person won a majority.

Both of the remaining candidates volition exploit simmering taste tensions. They travel from other ends of Iran. The zealous Mr Jalili is from Mashhad, Iran’s holiest metropolis and its second-largest, and appeals to the Persian-speaking bulk who capable the regime’s ranks. 

The reformist Mr Pezeshkian is simply a long-time MP from Tabriz, a metropolis successful the north-west with some Turkish and Kurdish heritage. His run speeches successful Turkish person already filled shot stadiums. He whitethorn effort to mobilise minorities who resent Persian domination. All this whitethorn interest Mr Khamenei, the ultimate leader, who sees himself arsenic straddling specified divides. His household is Azeri from the Turkish-speaking north-west, but helium grew up successful Mashhad successful the Persian east.

A last fissure is gender. The spectre of Mahsa Amini, a young pistillate who died successful custody aft she was detained for a “bad" veil, successful September 2022, continues to haunt Iran’s testosterone-heavy regime. Its bullyboys suppressed female-led protesters chanting “women, life, freedom" aft Mahsa’s death. 

So acold fewer women person joined either candidate’s campaigns. Anecdotal grounds suggests women boycotted the polls much than men did. Yet Mr Pezeshkian could effort to alteration this. The nighttime earlier the archetypal circular helium called for adjacent rights for women and said they should beryllium allowed to take however to dress. Many women are bushed of sloganeering but much factual steps could transportation them to vote: were Mr Pezeshkian to bring much women into his run and a aboriginal cabinet, helium mightiness spot enactment surge.

This predetermination takes spot amid 2 large questions. One is Iran’s fraught geopolitical position, with struggle successful the Middle East, its atomic programme and its intensifying relationship with Russia and China. The different is succession. Mr Khamenei is 85 and wants a president who tin assistance steer the country’s succession: nether the constitution, the president is 1 of triumvirate that leads the interregnum. The predetermination indispensable beryllium unnerving for the ageing ultimate leader. He has said a higher turnout is simply a yardstick of the regime’s “durability, stability, honour and dignity successful the world".

That whitethorn yet happen, but if it does it volition beryllium the merchandise of a fractious week of campaigning that exposes the fissures underlying his regime. He inactive holds galore levers of power. His Guardian Council selects the candidates. His interior ministry manages the election. And his loyalists number the vote. Yet for each that, Iran is tally by an unpopular authorities dogged by repeated bouts of unrest. The predetermination whitethorn yet awaken what galore deem the top menace to his rule—people power.

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Published: 30 Jun 2024, 04:22 PM IST